Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup: Sunday, January 28 Time: 3:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM CT
Showplace: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore; Odds Summary:
Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-108/-112) – Moneyline: Chiefs +180, Ravens -215 – Spread: Chiefs +3.5 (-102), Ravens -3.5 (-120)(Source: FanDuel Sportsbook for odds. Changeable.)*
Game Information:
The AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon promises to be a spectacular show.
In the second round, the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills added a spectacular new chapter to their relationship, and the Ravens defeated the Houston Texans 34-10. When the Bills missed a field goal on their final drive, Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City to a thrilling victory, and the Chiefs were able to escape with a win.
Baltimore is now back four other teams on the Super Bowl futures board, with the San Francisco 49ers being the closest competitor at +140. Looking ahead, Baltimore will have tough competition. The Chiefs are +450 to win the Lombardi Trophy again, even though they did so last season.
With his impressive playoff performance, can Lamar Jackson lead the Ravens to a significant victory? Or will the Chiefs win on the road once more to retain their championship?
Line of play:
Kansas City has struggled on the road with a poor performance over the last week. Having not traveled for a regular-season game since last week, Mahomes displayed no symptoms of worry. With 215 passing yards and a 73.9% completion percentage, he showed why he is still one of the top quarterbacks in the game by influencing the defense and scoring two touchdowns against the Bills.
Mahomes has now won two MVP honors, but Jackson is becoming more well-known after another outstanding effort last week. With 152 throwing yards, 100 rushing yards, and four touchdowns against the Texans, he displayed historically high stats.
Despite considering that Jackson is one year younger than the other the quarterback position, the postseason experience may play a big role. Mahomes is only second in NFL history to have played in six consecutive conference title games coming into this meeting. Mahomes is now 13-3 in the playoffs after winning last week, and he has a 3-2 record in this round.
This is Jackson’s first trip to the Super Bowl with a superbowl trap on the line, and he has yet to win a huge game. He doesn’t have the same postseason record as Mahomes—he is 2-3.
The differential might not matter too much, though, because Baltimore is a more formidable squad all around. This season, the Ravens led the NFL in offense, defense, and special teams, making them a particularly well-rounded club.
The Chiefs have a second-best offense in terms of yards and points allowed, but their offense has been fairly lackluster. They finished with 15th-most points, sometimes opting for field goals rather than touchdowns to cap off drives.
With a fourth-place scoring average and an early-game average of 29.8 points per game, Baltimore has no such problems. The Ravens have scored more over thirty points nine times in their previous eleven starts.
Jackson proved last week why it’s so hard to control him. Without hesitation, Houston attempted to blitz him in an attempt to get a quick release and keep him from getting comfortable in the pocket. In response, Jackson picked up his pace in the second half, dribbling past passing rushes and making adjustments.
Even while Mahomes is extremely flexible, he lacks Jackson’s ability to alter the game with his legs. Jackson has more weapons, particularly if injured top tight end Mark Andrews returns.
The last time these two teams faced off was in an exciting 36-35 game in 2021, with Jackson outperforming Mahomes. This time, a comparable result is anticipated.
Distributed of Points:
On the betting line, we like Baltimore, but the Kansas City spread at +3.5 points is a superior value.
The Chiefs will probably need to win by a margin more than a field goal in order to cover the spread against the Ravens. We don’t know if they can successfully test the Ravens’ defense.
It is foolish to wager against Mahomes in the playoffs, as has previously stated. After playing as an underdog the previous week, he is now 11-5 in the postseason against the spread.
TKansas City is 11-8 this season over the spread and has covered four straight games. They have also won their previous three road games and are an outstanding 7-2 away from home.
This season, Baltimore has a stellar record against the spread, going 12-6 overall and 6-2 in their past eight games. The Ravens have had trouble at home lately; in their previous six games at home, they are 3-3 against the spread.
The Chiefs should keep this game close with an excellent defense and famous head coach Andy Reid leading the way. They defeated a top club statistically last week, showcasing their abilities on the road.
Player Analysis:
In the past week, Kansas City faced challenges with a narrow win against the spread. Mahomes, who hadn’t played a road postseason game before last week, showed no signs of distress. He demonstrated that he remains one of the league’s best quarterbacks, adjusting to the Bills’ defense with 215 passing yards and a 73.9% completion rate, securing two crucial touchdowns.
While Mahomes already boasts two MVP awards, Jackson is set to earn his second after a historic performance last week. Jackson’s 152 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and four touchdowns propelled the Ravens to victory.
Although both quarterbacks are almost the same age (with Jackson being a year younger), postseason experience could play a crucial role. This matchup is Mahomes’ sixth straight conference championship game, the second-longest streak in NFL history after Tom Brady. After last week’s win, Mahomes stands at 13-3 in the playoffs, with a 3-2 record in this round.
Jackson has never been one win away from the big game, making this a pivotal moment for him. His post-season record is 2-3, and he lacks Mahomes’ track record.
However, the Ravens’ overall strength makes a significant difference this season. They top the league in offense, defense, and special teams. The Chiefs boast an excellent defense (second in points and yards), but their offense faced challenges, ranking 15th in points and often settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.
Above/Below Analysis:
With the best quarterbacks in the game, the 44.5 total points line is an average total. Last week, Kansas City easily surpassed this mark with 51 points, and if Houston’s defense falters in the second half, Baltimore might do the same.
Because of their formidable defenses, both teams are favorites to win this season. With a 13-6 record, the Chiefs give up just 17.1 points per contest. In the meantime, the Ravens are 9-8-1 under and give up an average of 16.1 points.
Kansas City has covered the total score in four of their last five games, whereas the Ravens have gone over in nine of them. In their last 11 home games, Baltimore has averaged 29.8 points per game, and in their previous nine games, they have scored 30 points or more nine times.
The game may be impacted by Baltimore’s weather this week, as projections call for rain and cooler temperatures. It could be difficult to score in these circumstances.
It’s a great chance to wager on both teams scoring fewer than 20 points because both have had trouble scoring 20 points or more in recent games.
With a strong defense and unpredictability in the environment, we should anticipate more field goals and punts than touchdowns in this contest.
Prop for the Player:
In order to set a goal for Kansas City in this game, pay close attention to Isiah Pacheco, a player who has recently been a touchdown machine.
In recent weeks, Pacheco has been KC’s touchdown machine, scoring in back-to-back games. In the last eight games, he has totaled seven touchdowns—seven on the ground and one through the air. He has been the team’s most dependable scoring option in recent months due to his steady scoring.
This week, if the weather holds, expect Kansas City to depend once more on Pacheco to find the end zone. This season, he has only fumbled twice, demonstrating his reliable ability to carry the ball safely.
In increasingly difficult circumstances, the Chiefs have a good option to utilize this dynamo.
